SATURDAY,  MARCH 8,  2008

ADVANTAGE McCAIN?

That's what veteran political writer Stuart Rothenberg thinks:

The longer the Democratic race continues, the more likely Obama will come under intense media scrutiny. From Clinton's point of view, the longer the contest goes on, the more the chance that the Illinois Senator will make a mistake, maybe even a major blunder.

The Democratic contest has been all about momentum, and Clinton supporters now have the right to feel that their candidate's message about experience and readiness for the job has finally started to take hold. Of course, we don't know if that is true. Ohio and Rhode Island may just be different from Nebraska, Hawaii and Alabama. But at least it gives Clinton supporters an argument that they can make over the next few weeks.

And...

Former Bush strategist Karl Rove said on the Fox News Channel on Tuesday night that McCain may be hurt by the fact that he will become invisible over the next month as members of the national media and the public focus on the Democratic race.

Last time I looked, the general election isn't until November, and McCain could use a few weeks to relax, recharge his batteries, raise money and reach out to party activists and insiders. He's far better off having Democrats and Republicans alike watch Obama and Clinton raise questions about each other's judgment, readiness and character, even if it means the focus isn't on him. He'll have more than enough time to tell his story.

That sounds right to me.  But McCain might do things during the period of Democratic bloodletting that increases his stature, like traveling abroad and getting photographed with foreign leaders.  He could also work on getting Nancy Reagan's endorsement, which would help with some renegade conservatives.

McCAIN AS WINSTON?

I haven't seen it yet, but there's a new McCain ad that suggests McCain is in the tradition of Winston Churchill:

The Republican candidate John McCain yesterday released an advertisement comparing himself to Winston Churchill, as he attempts to convince American voters that he would be the nation's worthiest leader in wartime.

Produced just days after he sealed the Republican nomination, the two-minute advert begins with Churchill's 1940 promise to "fight them on the beaches". This os followed by a clip of the Arizona senator exhorting his countrymen not to yield in the Iraq war in a 2004 speech at the party's national convention.

"Keep that faith. Keep your courage. Stick together. Stay strong. Do not yield. Do not flinch. Stand up... We're Americans. We're Americans, and we'll never surrender. They will," he says, before Churchill's voice is heard again.

The British wartime Prime Minister has an enduring popularity in the United States.

Yeah, I know about the enduring popularity.  And I think there are some Churchillian qualities that McCain possesses.  My problem is that a large chunk of the American population never heard of Churchill, or thinks he was either a rock group or a Civil War general.  Such is the state of our educational system.

I guess the ad can't do any harm, but I wonder how effective it is.  I prefer ads that look to the future.  Since we aren't there yet, our schools can't destroy it, although they'll probably try.

OBAMA'S RISKY STRATEGY

The Washington Post does a detailed analysis of Barack Obama's strategy, and finds flaws.  Before Tuesday the press emphasis was on the brilliance of Obama's campaign.  Now that he's been stopped, at least temporarily, the press is taking a harder look at his political plan, although he's expected to win Wyoming today:

The Illinois Democrat's strength in a Republican state that has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964 is the latest example of an ingenious strategy that neatly addresses the advantage Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) enjoys in Democratic strongholds where she and her husband have long-standing ties.

But Obama's losses Tuesday in Texas and Ohio -- coupled with his Feb. 5 defeats in California, New York and New Jersey -- have not only shown the strategy's downside. They have also given supporters of Clinton an opening for an argument that winning over affluent, educated white voters in small Democratic enclaves, such as Boise, Idaho, and Salt Lake City, and running up the score with African Americans in the Republican South exaggerate his strengths in states that will not vote Democratic in the fall.

And that's Obama's dilemma.  Even if he wins the nomination, it will be without the support of the Democratic core:

If Obama becomes the Democratic nominee but cannot win support from working-class whites and Hispanics, they argue, then Democrats will not retake the White House in November. "If you can't win in the Southwest, if you don't win Ohio, if you don't win Pennsylvania, you've got problems in November," said Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), a Clinton supporter.

Even some Obama advisers see a real problem. "Ultimately, all that matters is how the nominee stacks up against John McCain," said one adviser who spoke on the condition of anonymity, referring to the senator from Arizona and presumptive GOP nominee. "Right now, Barack is not connecting with the children of the Reagan Democrats. That's a real concern."

And it's the Reagan Democrats and their grown kids who may be the key to this election.  It's a remarkably interesting year.  We could use a third party to stir things up, but the only people willing to start one are in institutions being comforted and medicated.

THE NEVILLE CHAMBERLAIN BRIGADE

Some things are so sickening that they cry out for special mention.  It seems there's some new organization of international has-beens and publicity seekers that wants to impose itself on the world's crises. They bring great expertise and understanding to the table - not.

The group will soon send a delegation to the Mideast.  Its members?  Why, naturally, there's Jimmy Carter, a man who calls Israel an apartheid state, and whose center in Atlanta is heavily financed by Saudi money.  Then there's Kofi Annan, late of the UN, whose involvement in a number of UN scandals has not been explained.  Finally there's Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland, who, in a UN position, presided over the Durban conference held a week before the 9-11 attacks.  The United States walked out of that conference because of the eruption of major anti-Semitism. 

That's some delegation.  Would you buy a peace treaty from that gang?

Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter and former Irish President Mary Robinson will visit Israel, the Palestinian territories, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Saudi Arabia April 13-21.

I wonder who in Israel would want to welcome this crew.  I hope the Israelis have the spine to refuse to see any of them, and to issue a detailed statement explaining why.  I also hope the Democratic candidates separate themselves from the peanut farmer, and refuse to give him any encouragement.  The only good thing about this mission is that it gets Jimmah Carter out of the country, and humors him on a trip with those of like mind, or mindlessness.

A LOVE AFFAIR

This is not good news.  North Korea, which is presumably dismantling its nuclear program by international agreement, is seeking closer ties with Syria:

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il hopes for stronger friendship with Syria, the North's official news agency reported Saturday, amid lingering suspicions of a secret nuclear connection between the two countries.

Kim expressed the hope in a message to Syrian President Bashar Assad on the anniversary of a 1963 coup that brought Syria's Baath Arab Socialist Party to power, the North Korean Central News Agency reported.

"I express my firm belief that the friendly cooperative relations between the two countries will be further expanded and strengthened in various areas," Kim said in the message.

Kim's second-in-command, Kim Yong Nam, sent a similar message to the Syrian president, KCNA said.

North Korea has been suspected of helping Syria with a secret nuclear program.

You know, it's hilarious.  This message was sent to commemorate a coup that brought a bunch of thugs to power.  These foreigners have strange ways.  Do they have a cake with writing on it?  You know, "To Bashar, on your coup day." 

But the subject is stark.  North Korea and Syria have a secret relationship.  It's apparently not hard to export parts of a nuclear program.  And the Israelis did hit a target in Syria recently, widely believed to be a North Korean-supplied nuclear facility. 

What, precisely, is our State Department, under Condi Rice, doing to stop this growing brotherhood?  Why do I hear silence?

WHAT'S THE PROBLEM?

Finally, a crisis in Brazil.  It seems an eight-year-old boy has passed a law-school entrance exam:

Brazil's lawyers have been shocked to find that a boy aged eight has managed to pass the entrance exam to law school.

The Bar Association said the achievement of Joao Victor Portellinha should be taken as a warning about the low standards of some of Brazil's law schools.

"If this is confirmed, the Education Ministry should immediately intervene ... to investigate the circumstances of this case," said the association's president in Goias state, Miguel Angelo Cancado.

Joao Victor is still in fifth grade, two levels ahead of normal for his age, but his mother says he is not a cloistered genius. "He is a regular boy," she told the Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper. "He is very dedicated, likes to read and study, but he has fun and makes friends."

So what's the problem here?  In the U.S. this would be called affirmative action.  Are they really worried about standards, for lawyers?  When did this start?

I think they should investigate the lawyers who are protesting.  Discrimination against eight-year-old law students could be very serious.  There's a lawsuit in this.

And I'll be back later.

Posted on March 8, 2008.